Gaming market analyst DFC Intelligence forecasts Nintendo's Switch 2 to dominate next-gen console sales, projecting 15-17 million units sold in its first year. This prediction positions the Switch 2 as the clear market leader. Read on for details on this impressive forecast.
Switch 2: Projected to Sell 80 Million Units by 2028
DFC Intelligence's 2024 Video Game Market Report, released December 17th, predicts Nintendo's Switch 2 as the "clear winner" in the next-gen console race. The report highlights Nintendo's anticipated lead over Microsoft and Sony, citing the Switch 2's earlier projected release (2025) and limited initial competition. Sales projections are ambitious: 15-17 million units in 2025, and over 80 million by 2028. The report even suggests Nintendo may face manufacturing challenges due to high demand.
While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these remain in early stages. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028. This three-year head start for the Switch 2 (barring surprise releases) is expected to solidify its market dominance. The report suggests only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve significant success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established fanbase and strong game library.
Nintendo's Switch success is undeniable, with lifetime US sales surpassing those of the PlayStation 2, according to Circana (formerly NPD). Mat Piscatella, Circana's executive director and analyst, announced on BlueSky that the Switch has sold 46.6 million units in the US, making it the second best-selling console in US history after the Nintendo DS. This achievement is notable despite a reported 3% year-over-year sales decline for the original Switch.
Video Game Industry Poised for Growth
DFC Intelligence paints a positive picture for the gaming industry's future, citing over 20x growth in the past three decades. After a two-year slowdown, the firm predicts a return to healthy growth through the end of the decade, with 2025 marking a turning point.
This upward trend is attributed to new product launches, including the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI, expected to boost consumer spending. The gaming audience is also projected to surpass 4 billion players by 2027. The rising popularity of portable gaming, esports, and gaming influencers contributes to increased hardware sales across PCs and consoles.
